Risk Assessment for Distribution Networks Considering Uncertainties by Distributed Photovoltaic Generation and Electric Bus Charging Stations

Modern distribution networks face significant challenges due to system uncertainties with the increasing penetration of distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation and the integration of electric bus (EB) charging stations. This paper proposes a comprehensive risk assessment framework for distribution networks considering both PV generation and EV charging stations integrated, where the economic efficiency of transmission lines and the risk of power flow violations are evaluated. First, the uncertainties led by PV generation and EB charging loads are modelled using probabilistic techniques. A hierarchical sampling approach is employed to obtain representative samples. Then, the probabilistic power flow for the power network is calculated to obtain the probability and statistical information of the power flow. Furthermore, the risk assessment metric is introduced to quantify system performance on economic transmission efficiency and power flow violations. The proposed method offers a systematic approach to assess and mitigate risks in modern distribution networks, ensuring reliable and economical operation in the presence of high renewable penetration and electrified transportation demand.