Cio-Cio-san syndrome: Asia-Pacific insecurity from the point of view of Japanese public opinion

The article presents an analysis of trends and constants in Japanese public opinion related to traditional and new threats in 2023-2024. At the same time, polls demonstrate an index of ‘closeness’ (sympathy) to the United States in the mass consciousness of Japanese residents that is so high (87.4%) that at first glance it defies rational explanation. To ‘disenchant’ this phenomenon, the author proposes the metaphor of the ‘Cio-Cio-san syndrome,’ appealing to the image of the Japanese ‘Madama Butterfly’, who completely surrendered to a blind passion for an American naval officer. The main research question – what are the reasons for Japan’s blind veneration of the United States – is investigated through an analysis of public opinion polls and in-depth interviews, which allowed us to conclude that the center of the new phobias and anxieties of the Japanese is a feeling of existential insecurity arising from the imbalance of the military-political situation in the Asia-Pacific region, which puts the region on the brink of a global conflict. The specifics of the security landscape in the turbulent region leave no chance for the development of genuine sovereignty in Japan’s foreign and defense policy. Japan has no other choice but to increase its support for the United States, but nevertheless, the Japanese hesitations about the reliability of American security guarantees are expressed in the form of doubts whether Washington would come to Tokyo’s aid, whether a hypothetical conflict over Taiwan would become fatal for Japan if events went according to the scenario of a proxy war in Eastern Europe.