Research on the Decoupling Effect and Driving Factors of Rural Carbon Emissions in Three Northeastern Provinces of China

Carbon accounting in China’s three northeastern provinces, which have a long history of heavy industry, will aid in China’s renewable energy transition and achievement of the dual carbon objective. This research, using the LMDI approach and the Topia decoupling model, investigates the decoupling connection and driving variables between carbon emissions and the economic growth level of five major energy consumption in rural areas of the three northeastern provinces from 2005 to 2021. According to the findings, from 2005 to 2021, the decoupling state between carbon emissions and economic development is usually characterized by inadequate decoupling. Carbon emissions in the rural districts of the three northeastern provinces are mostly driven by rising per capita disposable income. This is closely followed by the spending-to-income ratio and energy consumption patterns. While the structure of energy consumption is generally weak, the decoupling state between the spending-to-income ratio and the pace of economic growth is predominantly strong. Limiting carbon emissions based on population size and energy consumption intensity is an emerging concept. Economic growth rates are generally decoupling strongly, which is good. Overall, the three northeastern provinces’ carbon emissions are decreasing year after year due to the optimization of several affecting factors.