Molecular simulation calculation and kinetic degradation model for thermal aging of transformer insulation paper

Life assessment of oil-paper insulation systems is critical for the entire power system. Existing aging assessment methods for transformer insulation materials rely on accelerated thermal aging tests in the laboratory, with long aging times at different temperatures and poor consistency of results. In this paper, according to the characteristics of thermal aging of oil-paper insulation by the three factors of temperature, moisture and oxygen, different reaction paths are studied from the perspective of transition state theory, the activation energy and reaction rate of different reaction paths are calculated, and the kinetic life prediction model is constructed and experimentally verified. The results show that the error between the model and the experimental value is less than 6.48%. This method reduces the experimental workload and provides a new idea for life prediction of insulating materials.