EXPECTED CHANGES IN AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FROM THE BCC-CSM1-2 CLIMATE MODEL FOR THE SYRDARYA RIVER BASIN

The air temperature and precipitation regime of the Syrdarya River basin for the period from 1941 to 2021 has been analysed, revealing increasing trends, and increasing precipitation in winter and insignificant decreases in summer. The excess of air temperature for the baseline period 1961-1990 was 2.2 - 2.6°C, and for the modern period 1991-2020 more than 1 °C, which is more in comparison with other regions of Kazakhstan. Also, the analytical work on selection of suitable climatic models from the CMIP6 ensemble was carried out based on detailing and adaptation to local orographic conditions. The Chinese model BCC-CSM1-2 turned out to be the most suitable model for the studied region. According to the model results, the expected temperature and precipitation changes until the end of the century are determined. According to the SSP-4.5 scenario, the average air temperature in winter may reach from 2.8 to +1.5 °C, and in summer up to 33.7 °C. The precipitation regime will also undergo changes, especially in winter and in March, the highest precipitation is expected in the foothills, with liquid precipitation predominating and a significant decrease in the warm half of the year in the plain area.