Long-Term Trends and Future Projections of Liver Cancer Burdenin China (1990–2035): A Comprehensive Analysis Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study and a Bayesian Age–Period–Cohort Model

Objective: This study aims to analyse the long-term trends and future projections of liver cancer burden in China from 1990 to 2035, focusing on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study and a Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model. Methods: Age-standardized rates for incidence, prevalence, mortality, DALYs, and years lived with disability (YLDs) were used to assess the liver cancer burden from1990 to 2021. A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was applied to project trends from2021to2035. Results: From 1990 to 2021, age-standardized liver cancer incidence slightly decreased, from 13.51 to 13.29 per 100,000, while rates for males rose from18.94to20.00 per 100,000. Mortality and DALYs significantly decreased, particularly in males, but prevalence declined modestly for both sexes. The liver cancer burden peaked in different age groups for males (50–54) and females (65–69). Future projections (2021–2035) suggest a 31.7% increase in incidence, from197,000 cases in 2021 to 259,000 in 2035, and a 31.2% rise in prevalence. DALYs and deaths are projected to increase by 30.5% and 35.9%, respectively. Conclusion: Liver cancer burden in China has decreased in terms of age-standardized incidence, mortality, and DALYs. However, absolute numbers are expected to rise by 2035, particularly among males and older populations. This highlights the need for strengthened prevention, early detection, and treatment strategies to address the growing liver cancer burden.