Resource Benefit Evaluation of Lithium Recovery from New-Energy Vehicle Batteries

With the popularity of new-energy vehicles, the recovery and reuse of lithium-ion battery (LIB) resources have become topics of great concern. This study explores the risks of the lithium resource chain in terms of supply–demand balance and lithium resource criticality. We propose a prediction algorithm for lithium production based on reverse-order MT-EGM-SD (metabolism–even grey model–system dynamics), upon which a system dynamics model for lithium resource recycling and reuse is constructed. We use dynamic simulation to evaluate the benefits of lithium resource recovery and the effects of different LIB recovery strategies. The results show that LIB recycling strategies, such as enhancing subsidy levels and strengthening public awareness initiatives, can significantly increase lithium resource recovery rates. From a medium- and long-term perspective, however, the technological progress strategy can greatly reduce lithium consumption intensity in the battery. Cascade use policy has significant economic benefits, but it delays the recycling of secondary raw materials. Under the joint strategy with the best resource efficiency (stringent government recycling regulations and significant advancements in battery production technology), the lithium supply–demand balance and the lithium resource recovery rate increase by 301.89% and 795.65%, respectively. Meanwhile, lithium resource chain risk, lithium criticality, and actual lithium demand decrease by 18.77%, 18.86%, and 75.11%, respectively.