Prediction of population aging trend and analysis of influencing factors based on grey fractional-order and grey relational models: a case study of Jiangsu Province, China

In conjunction with the analysis results from FGM(1,1) model and GRA of panel data, this study enhances the comprehensive understanding of the aging issue in Jiangsu Province. The insights derived herein offer crucial data support and a scientific foundation for both Jiangsu Province and the Chinese government to develop policies addressing population aging. Considering the anticipated future trends in aging, it is recommended that the government revise fertility policies to optimize population structure, increase investment in public finance and medical security, and promote the development of elderly care systems. These measures aim to mitigate the challenges posed by aging and achieve sustainable economic and social development.