Ukraine’s Debt Security in Times of War

The aim of the article is to calculate the integral indicator of Ukraine’s debt security according to the Methodological Recommendations for calculating the level of economic security of Ukraine, analyze the dynamics of this indicator in 2014–2023, and the main influencing factors, particularly in the context of the ongoing war. As a result of the analysis of scientific articles by numerous scholars, it is found that, despite the active research on the issue of Ukraine’s debt security during the wartime, insufficient attention is paid in the scientific literature to the calculation of the integral indicator of Ukraine’s debt security. The present study determines that the armed aggression of the russian federation in 2014–2015 caused significant damage to Ukraine’s debt security. Furthermore, the full-scale military invasion of russia further undermined it, affecting the public debt, budgetary stability, and the overall state of the economy. However, throughout the entire studied period, the value of the integral index of Ukraine’s debt security did not even reach the threshold of a dangerous level, predominantly remaining at a critical level, with the exception of 2014, 2015, and 2018, when the level of Ukraine’s debt security fell below critical. Therefore, the issue of ensuring Ukraine’s debt security has been relevant and acute for a prolonged period. It is identified that the only option that could replace external creditors is obtaining loans from the National Bank for a term of up to 30 years. However, since monetary emission leads to a rapid increase in inflation and the devaluation of the hryvnia, international financial assistance remains the primary source of support for our State during the wartime and simultaneously a key factor in Ukraine’s debt security. The scientific novelty of the presented article lies in the calculation of the integral indicator of Ukraine’s debt security, the study of the dynamics of this indicator in 2014–2023, and the main influencing factors. Prospects for further scientific research involve the search for ways to ensure Ukraine’s debt security, particularly through the study of foreign experience in managing the public debt security during wartime and in the post-war period. A targeted, albeit gradual, movement towards solving the problem of ensuring debt security is a guarantee of strengthening Ukraine’s economic and national security.