Carbon neutral spatial zoning and optimization based on land use carbon emission in the qinba mountain region, China

Amid global climate change, the pursuit of low-carbon development has become a unified international goal. The Qinba Mountain region plays an important role in maintaining China's ecological security, making spatial zoning tailored for carbon neutrality vital for local sustainable development. Using land use and socioeconomic data from 2000 to 2020 for 81 county-level units, a carbon neutral spatial zoning framework was developed, considering natural, economic, ecological and land resource factors. This study further integrated spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon index and multi-scenario predictions of future carbon emission (CE) for spatial zoning. The results revealed that the region had an overall positive net-carbon emission trend without significant ecological deficits, the central region faced increased CE and the northern region had weak ecological carrying capacity. The predicted future CE continued to decrease under low-carbon scenario and reached 30.55 million t by 2060, with only nine units failing to reach their carbon peaking by 2030. Five different zones were identified: carbon sink functional zone, low-carbon development zone, net-carbon stabilization zone, high-carbon control zone and carbon source optimization zone. Tailored optimization strategies for each zone were proposed to enhance regional ecological environment and contribute to green development. These findings offer insights into achieving carbon neutrality and sustainable development for regions or cities.