The Structure of Foreign Trade and Economic Growth of Ukraine: An Empirical Analysis

The article is devoted to substantiating the vision of the development of Ukraine’s foreign trade, which consists in establishing a hybrid policy of combining liberalism and protectionism, which provides an optimal structure of exports and imports with a view to maximizing economic growth rates. The aim of the article is to empirically prove the dependence of Ukraine’s economic growth on the peculiarities of the structural composition of exports and imports. The influence of the shares of imports and exports of commodity groups on the GDP of Ukraine is analyzed using multivariate cluster analysis. In the course of the study, it was found that export activity is a key factor in the country’s economic growth, while imports play a secondary role. The export structure includes strategically important commodity groups, such as iron and steel, cereals, animal and vegetable fats, which create significant added value and have a high impact on economic development. A high level of integration into global markets, especially through the exportation of metallurgical and agricultural products, increases Ukraine’s competitiveness in the international arena and ensures stable foreign exchange inflows to the country. The import structure, although it includes large volumes of mineral fuels, vehicles and engineering products, has a limited impact on economic growth. The main part of imported goods are consumer or raw materials that do not contribute to the creation of added value. The structure of imports does not have a significant impact on the level of economic growth due to its predominantly consumer nature, while exports are the main driver of economic progress. It is advisable for Ukraine to apply a protectionist policy on imports and stimulate domestic production, which will foster the creation of jobs, the formation of solvent demand, and the growth of output. Concerning exports, Ukraine should focus on resuming the production and exportation of iron and steel and provide safe logistics routes, including the sea transportation route.