SEGMENTED ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMICS INCIDENCE AND PREVALENCE OF ARTHROSIS IN THE ADULT POPULATION OF THE ARKHANGELSK REGION IN 2009-2023

Diseases of the musculoskeletal system and connective tissue are a common pathology of the adult population of the Russian Federation, in 2023 they accounted for 8.2% of the prevalence in the country. An analysis of the state of primary and general osteoarthritis (OA) is necessary for adequate planning of the volume and financing of medical care and allocation of health resources. The latest assessment of the incidence of OA in the Arkhangelsk region available in the literature was conducted in 2018. The aim of the study was to analyze the levels and dynamics of primary and general osteoarthritis incidence in the Arkhangelsk Region in comparison with the Northwestern Federal District and the Russian Federation among the adult population of Russia in the period from 2009 to 2023. Materials and methods. Segmented analysis using the Joinpoint Regression Program, v. 4.2.0.2 (National Cancer Institute, USA) was used to assess the time trends in the primary and general incidence of OA based on registration form No. 12. Differences between time periods with different linear trends were considered statistically significant at p<0.05. Results. The segmented analysis of incidence in the Arkhangelsk region showed a stable model with two trend breakpoints from 2009 to 2011, an increasing trend of 10.9% per year (p=0.12), followed by a decrease in growth rates of 6.9% annually (p<0.01), followed by an increase of 36.5% annually until 2023 (p<0.01). For the data on the prevalence in the Arkhangelsk region, the most indicative model was with three points of separation: from 2009 to 2018, the prevalence increased by 9.1% annually (for a trend of p=0.01), in 2019-2021, the overall prevalence by 4.0% (p=0.46), followed by an increase of 13% per year from 2021 to 2023 (p=0.05). Conclusion: uneven growth of incidence and prevalence against the background of aging and natural decline in the population of the region may indicate an underestimation of cases of OA.