A Data Mining Approach to Identify NBA Player Quarter-by-Quarter Performance Patterns

Sports analytics is a fast-evolving domain using advanced data science methods to find useful insights. This study explores the way NBA player performance metrics evolve from quarter to quarter and affect game outcomes. Using Association Rule Mining, we identify key offensive, defensive, and overall impact metrics that influence success in both regular-season and playoff contexts. Defensive metrics become more critical in late-game situations, while offensive efficiency is paramount in the playoffs. Ball handling peaks in the second quarter, affecting early momentum, while overall impact metrics, such as Net Rating and Player Impact Estimate, consistently correlate with winning. In the collected dataset we performed preprocessing, applying advanced anomaly detection and discretization techniques. By segmenting performance into five categories—Offense, Defense, Ball Handling, Overall Impact, and Tempo—we uncovered strategic insights for teams, coaches, and analysts. Results emphasize the importance of managing player fatigue, optimizing lineups, and adjusting strategies based on quarter-specific trends. The analysis provides actionable recommendations for coaching decisions, roster management, and player evaluation. Future work can extend this approach to other leagues and incorporate additional contextual factors to refine evaluation and predictive models.