Physical mechanisms of meteorological drought development, intensification and termination: an Australian review

We synthesise advances in the understanding of the physical processes that play a role in developing, intensifying, and terminating meteorological droughts. We focus on Australia, where new understanding of drought drivers across different climate regimes provides insights into drought processes elsewhere in the world. Drawing on observational, climate model and machine learning-based research, we conclude that meteorological drought develops and intensifies largely through an absence of synoptic processes responsible for strong moisture transport and heavy precipitation. The subsequent presence of these synoptic processes is key to drought termination. Large-scale modes of climate variability modulate drought through teleconnections, which alter drought-determining synoptic behaviour. On local scales, land surface processes play an important role in intensifying dry conditions and propagating meteorological drought through the hydrological cycle. In the future, Australia may experience longer and more intense droughts than have been observed in the instrumental record, although confidence in drought projections remains low. We propose a research agenda to address key knowledge gaps to improve the understanding, simulation and projection of drought in Australia and around the world. Australia experiences meteorological droughts due to insufficient moisture transport and heavy precipitation, which are influenced by climate variability and land processes, and are expected to become longer and more frequent, according to a review of observational and model-based studies.

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Publication Details

Journal
Communications Earth & Environment
Published
2025-03-25
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02179-3
Citations
14
Primary Topic
Hydrology and Drought Analysis
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
15.47

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article

Physical mechanisms of meteorological drought development, intensification and termination: an Australian review

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article

Physical mechanisms of meteorological drought development, intensification and termination: an Australian review

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article en
14 citations

Abstract

We synthesise advances in the understanding of the physical processes that play a role in developing, intensifying, and terminating meteorological droughts. We focus on Australia, where new understanding of drought drivers across different climate regimes provides insights into drought processes elsewhere in the world. Drawing on observational, climate model and machine learning-based research, we conclude that meteorological drought develops and intensifies largely through an absence of synoptic processes responsible for strong moisture transport and heavy precipitation. The subsequent presence of these synoptic processes is key to drought termination. Large-scale modes of climate variability modulate drought through teleconnections, which alter drought-determining synoptic behaviour. On local scales, land surface processes play an important role in intensifying dry conditions and propagating meteorological drought through the hydrological cycle. In the future, Australia may experience longer and more intense droughts than have been observed in the instrumental record, although confidence in drought projections remains low. We propose a research agenda to address key knowledge gaps to improve the understanding, simulation and projection of drought in Australia and around the world. Australia experiences meteorological droughts due to insufficient moisture transport and heavy precipitation, which are influenced by climate variability and land processes, and are expected to become longer and more frequent, according to a review of observational and model-based studies.

Communications Earth & EnvironmentVol. 6(1)
Australian National University (AU), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU), Bureau of Meteorology (AU), University of Tasmania (AU), The University of Melbourne (AU), Murdoch University (AU), University of Southern Queensland (AU), University of Wollongong (AU), UNSW Sydney (AU), ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (AU), Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (AU), Services Australia (AU), Ecosystem Sciences (AU), Monash University (AU)
National Computational Infrastructure, Australian Government, Meat and Livestock Australia, University of Southern Queensland, Queensland Government, Climate Extremes, National Cancer Institute
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 1%
Hydrology and Drought Analysis
15.47
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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