Unmet preconditions and individualism: Factors contributing to low fertility intentions and population decline in China

To mitigate the plummeting birth rate, the Chinese government has shifted its birth control and population policy from a one-child policy to a two- and three-child policy in 2016 and 2021, respectively. Despite the policy being buttressed with tax cuts, subsidies, cash reward, and laced with public education about the virtue and duty of having more children, the results have been unsatisfactory. While the total fertility rate experienced a positive announcement effect (i.e., an increase from 2016’s 1.77 to 2017’s 1.81), it declined significantly and continues to drop to 1.09 in 2022. Considering this worrying trend, this study investigates the factors that contribute to Chinese netizens’ low fertility intentions for having a second child. This study performed a reflexive thematic analysis using data from 881 social media threads on Weibo. The analysis reveals five primary factors that have influenced this community’s low fertility intentions. These include: (i) the unfulfillment of a range of common preconditions; (ii) the rise of individualism and desire for personal freedom; (iii) “one-and-done” parenting by choice; (iv) conscious childlessness; and (v) childcare burden. The findings indicate that the perceived unfulfilled precondition for childbearing is the strongest contributor to this community’s lack of intent to have a second child. These findings emphasize the need for family planning policies that not only address financial and social-psychological barriers to childbearing but also align family growth with personal aspirations, promoting long-term demographic sustainability.