Exploring the driving mechanism path of ecosystem service relationships based on the social-ecological system framework

Understanding the driving mechanisms behind ecosystem service (ES) trade-offs and synergies is crucial for sustainable ecosystem management. This study integrates the Social-Ecological System Framework (SESF) with path analysis to explore the relationships among crop production (CP), water retention (WR), and soil conservation (SC) in Shanxi Province, China. We identified six key driving factors-annual mean temperature (Tem), total annual precipitation (Pre), Net Primary Productivity (NPP), per capita GDP (GDP), agricultural, forestry, and water fiscal expenditure (Exp), and urban and rural per capita disposable income (Inc)-to analyze their direct and indirect influences on ES interactions over the years 2000, 2010, and 2020. Results show that CP and WR exhibit a persistent trade-off, while CP and SC maintain a synergistic relationship. WR and SC display a trade-off in static time points but shift towards synergy in long-term changes. Path analysis confirms that natural factors (Tem, Pre, and NPP) dominate short-term ES dynamics, whereas socio-economic variables (GDP, Exp, and Inc) play a greater role in long-term ES changes. Mediation analysis reveals that NPP partially mediates climate effects on ESs, while Inc mediates the influence of GDP on ESs. However, Exp does not significantly affect ESs through Inc, likely due to policy implementation delays and regional economic priorities. Findings suggest that spatially targeted policies should be implemented to optimize ES relationships. Long-term ES governance should integrate ecological restoration strategies with socio-economic incentives to enhance ES sustainability.