Simmering Conflicts, Major Consequences: Can Minor Conflicts Drive Military Involvement in Politics in Developing Countries?

ABSTRACT This research examines how governance risks stemming from internal conflicts (e.g., civil wars, terrorism, and civil disorder) and external conflicts (e.g., wars, cross‐border disputes, and foreign pressures) influence the military's involvement in politics (MIP). The study covers 94 developing countries from 1990–2021 and employs a first‐difference regression (FDR) and a fixed effect regression with Driscoll and Kraay standard errors (DKSE). One contribution of this study is it finds less severe forms of conflicts, such as terrorism and civil disorder, are significant predictors of MIP in DKSE models, but not in the FDR models. This indicates that while annual changes in terrorism and civil disorder may not affect MIP, their sustained levels do. Therefore, risks of MIP increase with simmering and persistent smaller‐scale conflicts. A second contribution of this study is that cross‐border conflicts and foreign pressures' effects on MIP are conditional, becoming significant only during periods of political change. Related Articles Macaulay, C. 2022. “Conflict Settlement and Identity in Territorial Claims.” Politics & Policy 50, no. 6: 1155–1176. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12493 . Hae, K. 2009. “The Complexities of Internal Conflict in the Third World: Beyond Ethnic and Religious Conflict.” Politics & Policy 37, no. 2: 395–414. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2009.00177.x . Tusalem, R. F. 2015. “Ethnic Minority Governments, Democracy, and Human Rights.” Politics & Policy 43, no. 4: 502–537. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12125 .