Forecasting housing distribution based on housing market dynamics in rapidly developing cities: the case of Doha metropolitan

Purpose This paper aims to examine the housing market dynamics in Doha Metropolitan in the context of projected demographic changes by 2035, which are expected to significantly influence the housing sector. Design/methodology/approach Focusing on downtown, waterfront and suburban areas within a rapidly developing urban environment, the study analyzes four major factors: (i) residential land use policy and capacity, (ii) government housing policies, (iii) housing supply and demand and (iv) housing preferences. A multimethodological approach is employed, including an assessment of housing policies, content analysis of supply-demand dynamics and a survey capturing population housing preferences. Findings The findings provide key insights for policymakers, urban planners and developers, highlighting an oversupply of residential land and housing stock and emphasizing the need for strategic housing distribution to address misalignments between supply and demand. The strategy prioritizes utilizing existing housing stock, with strategic development of vacant lands and increasing affordable housing in suburban and waterfront area. Originality/value This research presents a data-driven framework as a valuable contribution to the science of housing supply and demand, offering a predictive model to guide housing distribution in rapidly urbanizing cities worldwide.