Financial distress and return: A finite mixture approach

Using finite mixture models, we find that financial distress is related to realized return negatively (positively) for one (the other) latent group. The negative (positive) relation concentrates in firms with large negative (positive) realized return; the likelihood for a firm to be in the latent group with a positive relation is negatively related to its price-to-value ratio estimate and mispricing score, both of which measure relative mispricing. The mispricing-correction component of realized return is negative (positive) for overvalued (undervalued) firms and decreases (increases) with corrected overvaluation (undervaluation). Overall, our findings are consistent with the view that mispricing—undervaluation and overvaluation—is larger for firms with higher financial distress. Evident in our findings, an overall negative relation between financial distress and realized return is driven by the negative relation between financial distress and the mispricing-correction component for overvalued firms and, therefore, it is not at odds with the risk-reward paradigm. • The relation between distress and realized return is positive (negative) for undervalued (overvalued) firms. • The negative overall relation between distress and realized return does not contradict the risk-reward paradigm. • Zhuo (June) Cheng acknowledges financial support from Hong Kong SAR Research Grants Council, China (#15506018).