Seasonal Variations in Travel Demand Elasticity in Response to Gasoline Price Changes

Seasonal variations in travel demand elasticity provide essential information for formulating efficient transportation regulations and ensuring sustainable urban growth. However, existing studies ignore the temporal dynamics of travel behavior, notably how fuel price sensitivity varies by season in metropolitan settings. This gap constrains policymakers’ capacity to formulate solutions that effectively tackle variable travel patterns and their consequences for congestion and emissions. This study addresses the influence of gasoline prices and control variables such as population density, road counts, and seasonal variables on vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in Washington, D.C., metropolitan geographical area through an integrated econometric framework. The findings reveal that elevated gasoline prices considerably decrease VMT, illustrating the efficacy of fuel taxes in regulating travel demand. Snowy winters reduce VMT, whereas more population density lowers it, stressing the need for compact, multimodal urban strategies and designs. Incorporating temporal variability into elasticity modeling, this study addresses a substantial lacuna in the literature and offers policymakers and urban planners actionable strategies. The results underscore the worldwide significance of seasonally adaptable policies, like dynamic fuel taxes, improved public transportation, and strategic infrastructure development, to mitigate congestion, decrease emissions, and attain sustainable mobility throughout the year.