Research on Prediction of Dissolved Gas Concentration in a Transformer Based on Dempster–Shafer Evidence Theory-Optimized Ensemble Learning

The variation in dissolved gas concentration in the transformer serves as a crucial indicator for assessing the health status and potential faults of the transformer. However, traditional models and existing machine learning and deep learning models exhibit limitations when applied to real-world scenarios in power systems, lacking adaptability and failing to meet the requirements for accuracy and efficiency of prediction in practical applications. This paper proposes a Dempster–Shafer evidence theory-optimized Bagging ensemble learning model, aiming to improve the accuracy and stability of dissolved gas concentration prediction in transformers. By incorporating Dempster–Shafer evidence theory for the fusion of base learners and optimizing the basic probability distribution parameters by using the sequential least squares programming algorithm, this model significantly improves the adaptability and robustness of prediction. The experimental results show that compared to the ordinary Bagging method and the SARIMA model, the overall mean squared error of the Bagging prediction results optimized by the Dempster–Shafer evidence theory is only 22% of the mean square error of the Bagging prediction results and 38% of the mean square error of the SARIMA prediction results.