Characteristic Prediction for the Transformers by a Grey Verhulst Model

Converter transformer is an important part of UHVDC transmission system, which undertakes the work of energy transfer and energy conversion. In addition, the prediction of characteristics is significant to the safe and stable operation of whole system. In this paper, the characteristic prediction of a converter transformer by a grey Verhulst model is carried out, and the prediction features are investigated. From the results, it can be clearly seen that the Verhulst method seems more suitable for the prediction of the periodically changing sequence and the random sequence. In addition, the prediction errors for the monotonically varying sequence and the basically constant sequence by the Verhulst method are higher than that by the gm (1, 1) method. The prediction effectiveness of the proposed grey Verhulst model can be guaranteed. This paper provides a technical support for other characteristic predictions.