Research on Power Expansion and Optimization Based on Profit and Loss Balances of Power, Peak Shaving, Power Consumption, and System Economy in Data-deficient Regions

In response to global climate change, many countries have established ambitious carbon neutrality targets, fostering a consensus on increasing the share of renewable energy within power systems. This paper utilizes Africa as a case study due to the scarcity of power system data and examines the region's annual power supply structure, consumption patterns, load characteristics, as well as projected maximum loads and forecasts for power consumption. Through a comprehensive break-even analysis of diverse energy resources, we identify optimal supplemental power combinations. Additionally, we propose an optimization approach for economic power development that balances profit and loss in power, peak shaving, and power consumption. The system economic model adopts the comprehensive leveling power cost index considering the whole power construction and operation life cycle. It dynamically selects adjustable power sources, such as thermal power, that are not affected by meteorology. Under the premise of satisfying future system power, peak shaving, and power consumption balance, we seek to develop an expansion plan with minimal system costs to inform planning and policy-making in this research area. The research results are applied to the typical African country, Egypt, demonstrating its ability to effectively guide the formulation of its future power development planning scheme and has a good application prospect.