Risk Assessment Method for Power and Electricity Balance in New Power System Based on Multi-Time-Scale Chronological Production Simulation

The traditional power systems are gradually evolving towards new power systems with a large scale integration of new energy. The high proportion of new energy increases the randomness and volatility of the power system, elevating the risk of power and electricity balance. Therefore, it is crucial to find a method that can accurately assess the risk of power and electricity balance in new power systems. This paper proposes a risk assessment method for power and electricity balance based on multi-time-scale chronological production simulation. First, the weekly maintenance plan of the units is arranged on a long-term scale. Then, taking the maintenance plan as the boundary condition, short-term chronological production simulation is carried out on a short-term scale. The goal is to optimize the generation cost to obtain the power and electricity balance risk index, which evaluates the risk of power and electricity balance in new power systems. Finally, the validity of the proposed method is confirmed through an actual provincial power system.