Demand Analysis of DPV Participating in Power Balance with Consideration of Prediction Confidence Intervals

The explosive development of distributed photovoltaics brings risks to the balance of the power grid. In this paper, a quantitative method of DPV participation in power balance is proposed. Based on the prediction confidence analysis, a DPV participation balance analysis method is constructed, which fully considers the photovoltaic power fluctuation, prediction bias and system operating boundary. The result is a set of time series variables affected by the system operating state and photovoltaic prediction and fluctuation, which can provide theoretical support for the power system scheduling plan preparation and operation. A numerical example shows the effectiveness of the proposed method.