Incorporating Dynamic Factors in Geological Hazard Risk Assessment: Integrating InSAR Deformation and Rainfall Conditions

Geological hazards, particularly in mountainous regions, represent significant threats to life, property, and the environment. In this study, we focus on Luoping County, Yunnan Province, China, employing SBAS-InSAR technology to monitor surface deformation between 8 October 2022 and 27 September 2024. By integrating InSAR deformation data with 10 static disaster-causing factors, including elevation, slope, aspect, curvature, distance to faults, distance to rivers, distance to roads, engineering geological rock groups, geomorphological types, and the NDVI, geological hazard susceptibility was assessed using the information value (IV) model and the information value–random forest (IV-RF) coupled model. Accuracy validation using ROC curves indicated that the IV-RF model, integrated with InSAR deformation data, achieved the highest accuracy, with an AUC value of 0.805. Based on the susceptibility evaluation, rainfall intensity was introduced as a triggering factor to assess geological hazard risks under four rainfall conditions: 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods. The results demonstrated that incorporating InSAR deformation data significantly improved disaster prediction accuracy, providing more reliable and sustainable risk assessment outcomes. This study underscores the critical role of InSAR technology, combined with rainfall conditions, in enhancing the precision of geological hazard risk assessments, offering a scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation strategies in Luoping County and similar regions.