Spatial Conflicts in ‘Production, Living, and Ecological Space’ Functions at Urban Fringes: The Case of Zengcheng, Guangzhou

Understanding the interdependencies among production, living, and ecological spaces (PLESs) is critical for sustainable regional development. Urban fringe areas, shaped by rapid urbanization and conflicting land-use demands, are particularly vulnerable to spatial tensions. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of PLES conflicts in Zengcheng District, Guangzhou, a representative urban fringe region. Using land-use data from 2010 to 2020, the study applies the optimal parameter geographic detector, chosen for its ability to untangle complex spatial interactions, to quantify conflict intensity and identify key drivers. This method was chosen over other spatial analysis techniques due to its ability to effectively capture nonlinear relationships and interaction effects between variables, which traditional regression-based or spatial autocorrelation methods often fail to fully address. The results indicate that production and ecological lands dominated the landscape, while living space expansion slowed, leading to escalating conflicts, particularly in the southern and central regions. The PLES conflict index shows that severe conflict units rose from 0.89% in 2010 to 2.15% in 2020, despite over 80% of spatial units remaining stable. Moderate conflicts peaked in 2015 before declining, while stronger conflicts intensified, especially in rapidly urbanizing areas. Conflict hotspots were most pronounced in rapidly urbanizing zones, particularly at the interface of urban expansion and ecological conservation areas. Moreover, the driving forces behind these conflicts transitioned from economic and urbanization factors to a multifaceted interplay of natural and social determinants, underscoring the growing intricacy of spatial dynamics. These findings offer crucial insights into the mechanisms driving PLES conflicts, guiding urban planners and policymakers in developing strategies to balance competing land-use priorities. By quantifying conflicts and identifying key drivers, this study helps prioritize interventions that mitigate tensions between production, living, and ecological spaces, supporting policies that reconcile urban expansion with ecological preservation for sustainable development in urban fringe areas.