The Statistical Methods for Precipitation Prediction with Trend Analysis

This study investigates the condensation of water vapor in the atmosphere, precipitating to the ground in either solid or liquid form. This meteorological variable exhibits temporal and spatial variations influenced by climate change and other factors. To better analyze the effects of climate change on precipitation, the Konya Closed Basin was selected as the research area. Key parameters and datasets critical for various sectors and activities—from hydraulic structure design to irrigation planning—were identified. Seasonal and annual precipitation trend analyses were conducted for the provinces of Aksaray, Ankara, Isparta, Mersin, and Nevşehir using statistical methods, including the Mann-Kendall test, Spearman’s Rho, and the Innovative Şen Test, with the aid of XLSTAT software. The results revealed negative precipitation trends in Aksaray, Ankara, and Nevşehir, while positive trends were observed in Isparta and Mersin. Additionally, complementary data were collected from the Muş Meteorology Provincial Directorate to support the findings.