Spatial and temporal changes of the world tourist market during the major crises of the early 21st century

Modern global space is characterized by a complex heterogeneous structure, a high degree of variability, and regularly repeating crises. Tourism is a first to react to any political, economic, natural-climatic and other changes. At the same time, it is obvious that the variety of tourist regions and factors affecting their formation and development made the reaction asynchronous and non-identical. Options for the models of countries behavior at the world tourist market as a part of the center-peripheral approach are the focus of attention in our work. The object of the study is spatio-temporal changes in international tourism during 1995–2022. During this period of time, the world economy underwent three serious collapses, i.e. a crisis associated with the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack, the 2009 global economic crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. The purpose of the work is to group the national tourist destinations on the basis of reaction to these crisis periods. To achieve the goal, mathematical and statistical methods are used, such as the cluster analysis and the method based on the calculation of indicators of the growth rate of international tourist arrivals. The scenarios of the behavior of national tourist destinations are compared both separately for each crisis and for all three crises in total. As a result, the following models of behavior were revealed: 1) steady growing; 2) delaying: a) a prolonged reaction; b) a protracted output); 3) stable decline; 4) reviving influence; 5) quick exit. The article proposes an analysis of the totality of factors responsible for this or that development of events in particular countries. The pilot study could go on by studying the factors that determine very different socio-economic dynamics in tourist destinations, as well as by expanding the methodological apparatus.