Quo vadis, basic chemicals?

Revenues in the German chemical industry are stagnating, profit margins are falling, and its share of the global chemical market is on the decline. Germany continues to attract the highest amount of direct foreign investment in Europe. But what is the future of basic chemicals in the country, and in Europe more broadly, and what consequences will arise if the decline continues? The global chemical market has grown rapidly over the past 2 decades. Revenues have risen from about $1.7 trillion in 2003 to $5.6 trillion in 2023, for average annual growth of 6%. But these huge figures are primarily attributable to China. With average annual growth of 18%, the country increased its share of the world market from 5% in 2003 to 43% in 2023. In contrast, the US chemical market, which was the global leader for decades, was only around a quarter of the Chinese market in 2023.