Effects of Climate Change on House Prices in Outdoor Tourism Destinations: A Case Study of Southwestern Colorado

ABSTRACT We estimate the historical effects of climate change on real estate prices in the San Juan Mountain Region of Southwestern Colorado, an area strongly influenced by outdoor recreation‐based tourism, and we use these estimates to make projections for future house prices in the region based on multiple anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios. We find that local warm‐season minimum and cold‐season temperature and local warm‐season maximum temperature have significantly positive long‐run relationships with global anthropogenic climate forcing. Moreover, once we control for non‐climate factors that affect the housing market, we find that local cold‐season precipitation and local warm‐season maximum temperature have significant but opposite effects on local house prices. Scenario‐based projections suggest that these two effects largely negate each other under any climate scenario, so that effects of climate change on house prices are expected to continue through the end of the century as they have over the past few decades.