The spatiotemporal scaling laws of urban population dynamics

Human mobility is becoming increasingly complex in urban environments. However, our fundamental understanding of urban population dynamics, particularly the pulsating fluctuations occurring across different locations and timescales, remains limited. Here, we use mobile device data from large cities and regions worldwide combined with a detrended fractal analysis to uncover a universal spatiotemporal scaling law that governs urban population fluctuations. This law reveals the scale invariance of these fluctuations, spanning from city centers to peripheries over both time and space. Moreover, we show that at any given location, fluctuations obey a time-based scaling law characterized by a spatially decaying exponent, which quantifies their relationship with urban structure. These interconnected discoveries culminate in a robust allometric equation that links population dynamics with urban densities, providing a powerful framework for predicting and managing the complexities of urban human activities. Collectively, this study paves the way for more effective urban planning, transportation strategies, and policies grounded in population dynamics, thereby fostering the development of resilient and sustainable cities.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature Communications
Published
2025-03-24
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58286-4
Citations
19
Primary Topic
Human Mobility and Location-Based Analysis
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
41.36
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article

The spatiotemporal scaling laws of urban population dynamics

Michael Batty, Xingye Tan, Peng Gong, Yulun Zhou et al.
19 citations
Nature Communications
Human Mobility and Location-Based Analysis
41.36
article

The spatiotemporal scaling laws of urban population dynamics

Michael Batty, Xingye Tan, Peng Gong, Yulun Zhou, Qi Wang, Bo Huang
article en
19 citations

Abstract

Human mobility is becoming increasingly complex in urban environments. However, our fundamental understanding of urban population dynamics, particularly the pulsating fluctuations occurring across different locations and timescales, remains limited. Here, we use mobile device data from large cities and regions worldwide combined with a detrended fractal analysis to uncover a universal spatiotemporal scaling law that governs urban population fluctuations. This law reveals the scale invariance of these fluctuations, spanning from city centers to peripheries over both time and space. Moreover, we show that at any given location, fluctuations obey a time-based scaling law characterized by a spatially decaying exponent, which quantifies their relationship with urban structure. These interconnected discoveries culminate in a robust allometric equation that links population dynamics with urban densities, providing a powerful framework for predicting and managing the complexities of urban human activities. Collectively, this study paves the way for more effective urban planning, transportation strategies, and policies grounded in population dynamics, thereby fostering the development of resilient and sustainable cities.

Nature CommunicationsVol. 16(1)
Northeastern University (US), Suzhou University of Science and Technology (CN), Hong Kong Design Centre (CN), University College London (GB), University of Hong Kong (HK)
Sustainable cities and communities
Openalex Percentile: Top 0%
Human Mobility and Location-Based Analysis
41.36
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