SVRNN: A Spatiotemporal Prediction Model for Sea Surface Temperature Prediction in the Taiwan Strait

Accurate prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) plays a critical role in climate research and marine ecosystem management. Traditional models predict trends by analyzing and fitting data, but they struggle with capturing long-range dependencies and complex spatiotemporal patterns. The transformer’s attention mechanism effectively addresses long-range dependencies, but its high computational complexity poses challenges. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a novel spatiotemporal sequence prediction model: the spatiotemporal vision mamba recurrent neural network (SVRNN). The model innovatively integrates a bidirectional state-space processing mechanism and decoupled memory modules. The bidirectional mechanism maintains a global receptive field with linear computational complexity, while the decoupled memory modules explicitly separate spatiotemporal dependencies, enhancing the model’s ability to capture complex spatiotemporal patterns. During the experiment on hourly SST prediction in the Taiwan Strait, where the SST of the next 12 h was predicted using data from the previous 12 h, the SVRNN model demonstrated superior performance, achieving a root mean square error (RMSE) of <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$0.159~^{\circ }$ </tex-math></inline-formula>C, a mean absolute error (MAE) of <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$0.105~^{\circ }$ </tex-math></inline-formula>C, and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.496%. Furthermore, our seasonal error analysis reveals that the model exhibits robust performance in different seasons, providing more reliable technical support for SST prediction in Taiwan Strait.