Does Improving Comprehensive Elderly Care Capacity Contribute to Achieving Carbon Neutrality Goals? Analysis Based on the Spatial Durbin Model and Mediation Model

This study uses panel data from 30 provinces in China between 2014 and 2022 to investigate the relationship between comprehensive elderly care capacity and carbon neutrality goals. The research finds that there is a positive relationship between comprehensive elderly care capacity and the achievement of carbon neutrality, with a coefficient of 0.061 that is significant at the 5% significance level. However, there exists a negative spatial spillover effect, with a coefficient of −0.119 that is significant at the 1% significance level. The unemployment rate plays a mediating role between the two; the improvement in elderly care capacity can reduce the unemployment rate, with a coefficient of −0.457, while there is also a negative relationship between the unemployment rate and carbon neutrality goals, with a coefficient of −0.015. Therefore, enhancing the elderly care capacity can lower the unemployment rate, which, in turn, can promote the achievement of carbon neutrality goals.