Factors Influencing Climate-Induced Evacuation in Coastal Cities: The Case of Shanghai

Against the backdrop of global climate change, extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall, typhoons, tsunamis, and rising sea levels, have become frequent, posing unprecedented challenges to human society. As an important strategy for coastal cities to respond to climate change, climate-induced evacuation is influenced by complex and diverse factors. This study delves into the driving mechanisms of population migration willingness, revealing the dynamic balance of push, pull, and resistance factors and their interaction with individual value orientations affecting migration decisions. By constructing a Logistic Regression Model, this research quantitatively analyzes the significant impacts of personal circumstances, family characteristics, living conditions, risk perception, compensation relocation, and supportive policies on climate-induced migration willingness, using Shanghai as a case study. The findings indicate that age, education level, household size, housing type, risk perception, and compensation policies are key factors. Building upon the multidimensional capital interaction mechanisms and dynamic threshold response patterns identified in the research, this study proposes a three-phase progressive policy framework: initially, establishing an integrated human–material–social capital framework to implement tiered relocation incentive programs, which address decision window constraints through cognitive empowerment and asset replacement strategies; subsequently, creating a dynamic compensation adjustment mechanism by developing policy toolkits aligned with inverted U-shaped utility curves while enhancing synergistic effects between cultural cognition transformation and vocational training; and ultimately, innovating an institutional–cultural co-governance paradigm that rebalances public service dependency and place attachment through spatial equity redistribution. Specific recommendations encompass designing modular risk education curricula, establishing social network transplantation mechanisms, piloting climate citizenship regimes, and constructing cross-border governance knowledge platforms. These multidimensional interventions encompassing capital restructuring, threshold responsiveness, and cultural adaptation offer valuable policy insights for resolving the “development resilience–migration inertia” paradox in coastal cities.