Risks of Institutionalization of the Central Asia–China Format for Solidarity and Political Trust in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization

The risks of institutionalizing the format of the Central Asia–China dialogue (“C+C5”) for solidarity and mutual political trust within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are considered. According to the documents, institutionalization is aimed at transforming the “C+C5” format into a full-fledged international intergovernmental organization with functions that duplicate the existing ones within the SCO. In the current official documents, Russia has declared the importance of SCO development and has assigned it a special role in the implementation of the “Turn to the East” Policy, the development of the “Greater Eurasian Partnership,” and the deployment of the project of the “North–South International Transport Corridor.” In this regard, further institutionalization of the “C+C5” format may create restrictions for the realization of these Russian plans and even for the protection of interests in the Central Asian region (CAR). This circumstance, coupled with the active attempts of the West and the United States to force a number of CAR countries to refuse Russia’s assistance in circumventing the sanctions regime, is unlikely to be understood in Moscow. This means that it is necessary to think about ways to overcome the likely limitations by deepening the dialog with China on the issues of further development of the SCO and increasing its effectiveness. Plans to institutionalize the “C+C5” format may also cause increased opposition from other major global “players” such as the United States, India, the European Union, and Japan, which have been actively involved in Central Asian Affairs in recent years, developing formats for dialogue between “1 + C5” (CAR countries).