Kidney Transplant Wait Times Under Waiting List Expansion Scenarios

In this decision-analytic model, expansion strategies without additional organ supply increased the median time to kidney transplant by nearly 2 years; 10% waiting list expansion required at least 2850 additional organs to shorten wait times. However, 50% waiting list expansion required at least 11 000 additional organs to approximate current wait times. Reduction in the deceased-donor organ nonuse rate alone is unlikely to meet the shortfall. Systems-level efforts to significantly increase deceased and living donation should be prioritized alongside increased access to the transplant waiting list.