GDP Estimation by Integrating Qimingxing-1 Nighttime Light, Street-View Imagery, and Points of Interest: An Empirical Study in Dongguan City

In the context of economic globalization, the issue of imbalanced regional development has become increasingly prominent. Misreporting in traditional economic censuses has made it difficult to accurately reflect economic conditions, increasing the demand for precise GDP estimation. While nighttime light data, point of interest (POI) data, and street-view imagery (SVI) have been utilized in economic research, each data source has limitations when used independently. Furthermore, previous studies have rarely used high-resolution (over 30 m) nighttime light data. To address these limitations, we constructed both random forest and decision tree models and compared different indicator combinations for estimating GDP at the town scale in Dongguan: (1) Qimingxing-1 nighttime light data only; (2) Qimingxing-1 nighttime light and SVI data; and (3) Qimingxing-1 nighttime light, SVI, and POI data. The random forest model performed better than the decision tree, with its correlation coefficient improving from 0.9604 (nighttime light only) to 0.9710 (nighttime light and SVI) and reaching 0.9796 with full integration. Moreover, the Friedman test and SHAP values further demonstrated the reliability of our model. These findings indicate that the integrated model provides a more accurate reflection of economic development levels and offers a more effective tool for regional economic estimation.