Cash Subsidies for the Poor: Evaluating Thailand's State Welfare Card Programme

ABSTRACT This paper examines the causal effects of Thailand's 2017 large‐scale unconditional cash transfer programme (‘the state welfare card programme’) that covered over 20% of the country's population. The study uses regression discontinuity methods and data from the 2019 nationally representative household socio‐economic survey. Results show that this programme had no significant impact on consumption expenditure and food expenditure, as intended. However, the programme caused a significant increase in non‐consumption expenditure, especially items paid for in cash. Also, the programme significantly increased in‐kind consumption expenditure, demonstrating the payment modality of the programme. Given a large evidence base showing the poverty‐reducing effects of cash transfer programmes in developing countries, the findings point to the need to revamp the programme at both design and implementation stages.