Simplified prediction of settlements of shallow foundations caused by earthquake-induced excess pore water pressures

Seismic actions are usually considered for their inertial effects on the built environment. However, additional effects may be caused by the volumetric-distortional coupling of soil behaviour: the fast cyclic shaking on saturated soils caused by earthquakes generates temporary undrained or quasi-undrained conditions and subsequent pore pressure variations that, if positive, reduce the effective stresses, eventually leading loose granular soils to liquefaction. Whatever the amount of seismically induced pore pressure build up, buildings on shallow foundations suffer settlements and tilts that may be extremely large when soils approach liquefaction, as demonstrated by several recent case histories. The paper proposes an equivalent elastic approach in effective stresses to predict the co-seismic (undrained) component of the seismically induced settlement of shallow foundations, which usually is the most relevant one, by considering the decrease of soil stiffness during the seismic event. The total settlement can be then estimated by adding the post-seismic (drained) component, also evaluated in this paper via a quite simple approach. Even though the equivalent elastic model is stretched into a highly non-linear soil behaviour range, especially when the soil is approaching liquefaction, the model considers the relevant capacity and demand factors and proved effective in simulating some centrifuge tests published in the literature. In the paper, the simplifying assumptions of the approach are clearly indicated, and their relevance discussed. It is argued that notwithstanding some limitations the model is physically based and therefore it allows for understanding and checking the relative relevance of all the parameters related to soil, foundation, and seismic action. Thus, it is a tool of possible interest in the design of shallow foundations in liquefaction-prone seismic areas. • New method estimates pore pressure increments in liquefiable soil under structures. • Effective stress analysis under seismic undrained conditions. • Equivalent elastic approach predicts co-seismic settlement in shallow foundation. • Total settlement is calculated by combining co-seismic and post-seismic components. • Undrained settlement component is most critical, aligning with experimental evidence.