What made 2023 and 2024 the hottest years in a row?
Global surface temperature reached a record high in 2023. Using a global climate model, we show that El Niño along with extratropical variability boosted 2023 to be the hottest year on a background warming of 0.2 °C/decade. Our model initialized in July 2024 correctly predicted that 2024 was on track to become yet another hottest year on record.
Authors
- Ayumu Miyamoto (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6983-5116)
- Liang Yu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0231-4997)
- Pengcheng Zhang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4456-736X)
- Yu Kosaka (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5575-4668)
- Shang‐Ping Xie (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3676-1325)
- Nicholas J. Lutsko (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2733-7810)
Institutions
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography (US)
- University of California San Diego (US)
- The University of Tokyo (JP)
Publication Details
- Journal
- npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
- Published
- 2025-03-22
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01006-y
- Citations
- 12
- Primary Topic
- Climate variability and models
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 13.26
Funders
- Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science