The Nexus of Climate Change, Poverty and Migration: Security Implications for Mexico

The perception that migration will be the most likely and most serious consequence of climate change, with large numbers of people migrating long distances, has not been sustained. Various analyses suggest that, although climate impacts can affect population movement, in addition to many other pushes and pull factors, most migration is internal and not permanent. Various studies on migration suggest that, although climate change is not a direct cause of migration, it can be a variable that influences poverty, which would translate into the migration and insecurity of people. The objective of this work was to develop a quantitative model to show the statistical significance of the links between climate change, poverty, migration and security in México. Methodology: An econometric Multinominal Logit Model (MLM) was developed that offers a platform to explore the impact of climate change on poverty and migration, with results at the national and regional levels using local climate and demographic data as key factors. This model represents a resource that econometrically shows the effect of both demographic and climatic variables on the decision to migrate both internally and externally. Results: The results of the MLM show that climate variables (temperature and precipitation) are key and statistically significant determinants in the decision to migrate. With the evidence shown here, Mexico is going through notable climatic changes in the midst of a variety of climatic events, such as floods, droughts and hurricanes, whose intensity and frequency are showing an upward pattern. Some states and cities are more at risk than others. Thus, climate change in Mexico affects many sectors: industrial, agricultural, water, energy, health, security; and migration within and across borders. The quantitative results represent an advance in the identification of the complex relationship between the possible effects of climate change, the various productive activities, mainly in rural areas, and the decisions to migrate in Mexico. Conclusion: The results of the MLM model in Mexico show that temperature and precipitation are key and statistically significant factors in the decision to migrate. Decision-makers have in this analysis a first outline towards a quantitative understanding of the relationship between climate change, poverty, migration and security in Mexico.