Douglas fir – A victim of its high productivity in a warming climate? Predominantly negative growth trends in the North German Lowlands

Recent hot droughts and a rising atmospheric vapor pressure deficit are exposing Central European forests to growing stress, causing growth decline, crown damage and elevated mortality of some of the economically most important tree species. Foresters therefore advocate the planting of introduced Douglas fir as a replacement of more vulnerable tree species, but the species' drought and heat resistance is not sufficiently understood. Here, we analyze long-term basal area increment (BAI) trends and the climate sensitivity of growth of 15 mature Douglas fir stands along a precipitation gradient (940-580 mm yr^-1) in the North German Lowlands on similar soil. We searched for recent growth declines and assessed the potential of acclimatization to a drier climate. After a pronounced growth increase from 1980 to 2000, BAI has shifted in the last 15 years to a negative trend in the majority of stands, with drier stands being more affected. Thirty percent of the 304 studied trees show significant negative BAI trends, another 47 % non-significant negative trends, compared to 5 % with significant and 12 % with non-significant positive trends. The strongest drivers of a negative BAI trend were climate continentality (seasonal temperature amplitude), a cold February, a negative summer climatic water balance, and low precipitation, indicating declining growth rates especially in continental climates with cold winters and dry summers. A highly significant negative relation exists between recent BAI trend direction and highest growth rate in the past, indicating that faster growth in the past led to greater recent growth decline. We conclude that Douglas fir is more vulnerable to climate change in Central Europe's warmer lowlands than previously thought, which has to be considered in silvicultural planning.