Mental Capabilities, Heterogeneous Trading Behaviour and Performance in an Experimental Asset Market

Abstract We study how variations in two mental capabilities—analytical capability (quantitative reasoning) and mentalising (assessing others’ behaviour)—drive heterogeneity in evaluations of identical information about an asset’s fundamental value and past prices. Our mental framework aligns with regularities observed in experimental asset markets, providing a cognitive basis for heterogeneous trading behaviour. Applied to an experimental market, it predicts that trading, performance and bubble-crash patterns crucially depend on mental capability differences. Traders proficient in both capabilities succeed most, while performance is otherwise non-monotonic in capabilities. Experimental results support these predictions, highlighting the important role of mental capabilities in asset markets.