Growth and Fluctuations of Yields of Rice, Wheat, Pulses and Oil Seeds in India, West Bengal and Odisha: 1970-71 to 2019-20

The agriculture sector is fundamental to achieving stable growth in a developing country like India, where consistent yields of major crops with minimal fluctuations contribute significantly to economic stability and food security. This study analyses the growth and fluctuations in the yields of four key crops—rice, wheat, pulses, and oilseeds—across India and the states of West Bengal and Odisha from 1970-71 to 2019-20. We estimate growth rates using the Exponential Annual Growth Rate (EAGR) and Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) and assess yield fluctuations through multiple measures, including the RSS-based measure, the Cuddy-Della Valle Index [3], Coppock’s fluctuation index, and a Modified Coppock’s fluctuation index, to capture diverse aspects of yield variability. Our results indicate significant growth rates in the yields of all four crops for both India and West Bengal. In Odisha, rice and oilseeds show significant growth rates, while wheat and pulses do not. Distinct patterns of yield fluctuation are observed for each crop across India, West Bengal, and Odisha, underscoring the varying regional challenges in agricultural production. These findings can inform targeted policies to promote stable agricultural productivity and, consequently, economic growth.