EOST-LSTM: Long Short-Term Memory Model Combined with Attention Module and Full-Dimensional Dynamic Convolution Module

In the field of weather forecasting, improving the accuracy of nowcasting is a highly researched topic, and radar echo extrapolation technology plays a crucial role in this process. Aiming to address the limitations of existing deep learning methods in radar echo extrapolation, this paper proposes a spatio-temporal long short-term memory (LSTM) network model that integrates an attention mechanism and the full-dimensional dynamic convolution technique. The multi-scale spatial and temporal features of radar images can be fully extracted by an efficient multi-scale attention module to enhance the model’s ability to perceive global and local information. The full-dimensional dynamic convolutional module introduces the dynamic attention mechanism in the spatial position and input and output channels of the convolutional kernel, adaptively adjusts the weight of the convolutional kernel, and improves the flexibility and efficiency of feature extraction. Combined with the network constructed by the above modules, the accuracy and time dependence of the model for predicting the strong echo region are significantly improved. Our experiments based on Jiangsu meteorological radar data show that the model achieved excellent results in terms of the Critical Success Index (CSI) and Heidke Skill Score (HSS), which show its efficiency and stability in predicting radar echo, especially under the condition of a high 35 dBZ threshold, and its prediction performance improved significantly. It provides an effective solution for fine short-term impending precipitation forecasting.