Understanding the shift of family planning in China from the economic perspective

Using data from six population censuses in China, this study analyzes the variations in the age structure of the Chinese population from 1953 to 2020. A unique aspect of this research is the redefinition of the old-age population – specifically considering the retired population (aged 55 and over for females and 60 and over for males) – which is tailored to reflect the social realities in China. This approach more accurately represents the economic burden of China’s current pension system. Our primary conclusion is that the Chinese population has undergone a dramatic transformation from being predominantly young to increasingly older, largely due to the implementation of family planning policies and overall socioeconomic development. Population aging in China encompasses not only the growing retired demographic but also the aging labor force, marked by an increasing number of individuals exiting the workforce and a decline in those entering. Moreover, the pace of population aging in China is significantly faster than in any other country. In addition, China faces a shrinking labor force and potential negative growth, exacerbated by historically low fertility rates. Finally, the changes in the child, retired, and total dependency ratios from 1953 to 2020 illustrate a rapid increase in public expenditure, driven by the growing weight of the retired population, even though the total dependency ratio in 2020 is lower than it was in 1953.