Research on the Impact of Real Estate Commercial Housing Prices on Societal Marriage RatesAn Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

With the rapid rise in housing prices in China, young people face increasing financial pressure, especially when it comes to purchasing homes and establishing families. As a result, an increasing number of individuals are choosing to delay or forego marriage altogether. This study investigates the impact of real estate prices on marriage rates, based on provincial panel data in China from 2005 to 2022. By employing various regression models, including log-linear and polynomial regression models, the study analyzes the dynamic relationship between housing prices and marriage rates. Several control variablessuch as per capita GDP, divorce rates, birth rates, and education levelsare incorporated to enhance the explanatory power and robustness of the results. Findings show that rising housing prices significantly suppress marriage rates, particularly in economically disadvantaged areas or regions with high price volatility. Specifically, a 1% increase in housing prices is associated with an average 0.36% decrease in the marriage rate. This research not only provides a new perspective on the relationship between housing prices and marriage rates but also serves as an important reference for policymakers. It suggests that government policies on real estate and population should consider the potential impact of housing prices on social structure and marital stability.