A Comparative Study on the Methods of Predictor Extraction from Global Sea Surface Temperature Fields for Statistical Climate Forecast System

Statistical climate forecast systems typically do not use preceding global gridded sea surface temperature (SST) data directly; instead, they extract a single predictor (e.g., the Niño3.4 index) or multiple predictors (e.g., time series of several SST spatial modes). In this study, four different SST predictor extracting methods (one single-predictor method and three multiple-predictor methods) are comparatively analyzed within the same climate forecast platform incorporating either the linear regression (LR) model or the neural network (NN) forecast model. Rolling forecast experiments with the LR model show that, compared to a single strong SST predictor, only multiple predictors with more high-quality information (high signal-to-noise ratio) could improve the forecast skill. Sensitivity experiments also show that the influence of multiple-predictor extracting methods on forecast skill from the NN model is much weaker than that from the LR model. Moreover, whether or not multiple SST predictors are orthogonal might also affect the forecast skill. The above analyses provide a reference for establishing statistical climate forecast system based on preceding SST data.