Modeling the Predictors of Extreme Weather Affective Experience and Its Influence on Extreme Weather Decision-Making

Abstract Although recent research has examined the impact of weather and climate on individuals’ emotions, the relationship between affect (the unconscious and immediate reaction of feeling or emotion) and extreme weather events remains relatively unexplored. Affective responses, like feelings of excitement toward seeing lightning from a safe refuge, or fear related to news of an approaching tornado, can have impact on how individuals perceive risk and decide to take protective actions. We developed two theoretical models to study extreme weather affect: The first considers how demographic variables can predict extreme weather risk perception and affect, while the second investigates how extreme weather affect can influence preparation and response behaviors. These models were tested against data obtained through a representative survey of U.S. adults ( N = 2009) that used a modified Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS) to measure affective experience with extreme weather. Measures of risk perceptions about extreme weather events and the likelihood of responding to tornado events were also used. Analysis was performed through structural equation modeling (SEM), which identified that the extreme weather affect predictor and influence models were supported with a strong model fit. We find that many demographic measures are related to extreme weather affect, while that positive affect toward extreme weather moderates preparedness for tornadoes. Future work should consider the extent to which a causal relationship between positive extreme weather affect and preparatory actions exists across other extreme weather hazards, as well as to address how low positive affect toward extreme weather can interact with preexisting societal vulnerabilities. Significance Statement Experiences of feeling or emotion, also called affect , are an important part of how we make decisions in our daily lives, from what we decide to try at a restaurant to when we decide to shelter from a thunderstorm. In this study, we investigate how affect felt toward extreme weather events like tornadoes, hurricanes, and wildfires can vary across populations and influence disaster response. Using a series of statistical models, we identify that demographics like race, age, and ability to interpret probabilities are related to positive and negative extreme weather affect. Further, extreme weather affect appears to be related to how individuals report preparing for and responding to tornado events, with negative affect reducing preparedness and responsiveness to these storms.